What Vegas Thinks: Major movement in USC-Florida line

Posted by JOSH KENDALL on November 14, 2013 

Connor Shaw and the Gamecocks are favored by 13.5 points over Florida.

GERRY MELENDEZ — gmelendez@thestate.com

Sports gambling industry journalist David Purdum joins us this week to talk about the South Carolina-Florida game, and how much faith Las Vegas has lost in the Gators recently. The Gamecocks are a 13.5-point favorite Saturday, and all the trends are bad for the Gators going into the game.

The State: There hasn’t been a ton of movement on the South Carolina-Florida line this week but there has been a lot in the last couple weeks hasn’t there?

David Purdum: Man, there has. You remember the first time we talked before the season began, this game was up at the Las Vegas Hotel and Casino, and the line was 3.5. Now we’re looking at 13.5. How things have changed.

The State: The last two weeks it’s moved almost a touchdown right?

David Purdum: Two weeks ago, before Florida lost to Vanderbilt, Gamecocks were only 7.5-point favorite. That loss, it just looks like oddsmakers and the betting market believe Florida is in complete collapse mode, which is hard to argue right now. When you get blasted by a Vanderbilt team that is way down there, you have to make adjustments pretty quickly, and they have certainly done that with Florida.

The State: Florida hasn’t done well coming off a loss or in the month of November recently, right?

David Purdum: Will Muschamp’s teams, since he’s been there, it seems like they do not finish strong. They are 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games in November. They are not meeting the expectations, and when they lose it seems they have a tough time rebounding. They are also 2-9 against the spread after their last 11 losses.

The State: Switching gears, Auburn is getting good vibes from the people in South Carolina this week but the Tigers are also getting a lot of action against Georgia?

David Purdum: Yeah, they are. Auburn opened as a 3-point home favorite and that line quickly jumped to 3.5. It may only seem like a half point, but 3 to 3.5 is one of the biggest adjustments in football because you move off that field goal.

The State: The last time we talked about the national picture, it was a potential Alabama-Oregon matchup we looked at, but the Ducks are out of it now after a loss to Stanford. Alabama has become a big favorite in all the potential matchups now right?

David Purdum: Yeah, Alabama-Florida State seems like the most likely matchup now. Right now at the Golden Nugget, Alabama would be about a 5.5-point favorite over Florida State. The other teams they could possibly meet, maybe Baylor, where Alabama would be a 9-point favorite. Alabama would be a 10-point favorite over Ohio State.

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